CHAPTER 11

What they're telling you.

Every discard is a message. A player who throws West Wind on turn 2 is telling you they're not collecting winds. A player who dumps a full suit through turns 3–7 is probably building in a different one. Reading these messages accurately lets you anticipate danger, identify what's safe, and sometimes predict exactly what an opponent is waiting for.

01The discard river

The river is the sequence of tiles a player has discarded, in order. It's the history of their hand decisions.

Early discards (turns 1–5)

Reflect the opening hand — what they were dealt and immediately didn't want. Strong signals about which suits and honors they're avoiding.

Late discards (turns 10+)

Deliberate choices — tiles that once seemed useful but no longer fit their plan. Stronger signals: they're committed to a specific shape and trimming toward it.

02What early discards reveal

01Honors early → suited hand

They're building pure or near-pure suited. Their honor singletons had no pairing plan. Safe implication: those same honors are probably safe to throw back later.

02Terminals early → mid-tile hand

They're keeping tiles 4–6, likely building chow-heavy. Mid-tiles in their kept suits become progressively more dangerous.

03Mixed with no pattern → still developing

Don't read too much yet. Watch the next 3–4 discards for the suit they're settling into.

03Hand type signals

Mixed one-suit

Early: discards from two suits, keeps honors. Late: only tiles from one suit appear in the river. Pattern: one suit dominates their keeps; honors + one other suit in discards. Response: avoid mid-tiles in the suit they're keeping.

Pure one-suit

Early: discards honors AND two full suits. Their river has no honors at all, or just one. Two suits pile up fast. Response: the third suit is extremely dangerous — every tile feeds their hand.

All pungs

Discards tend to be singletons — tiles with no pair partners. They call every pung they can reach. Honor discards to them are the biggest risk.

Seven pairs

They're not calling anything. No exposed sets, ever. Discards are deliberate — probably throwing one of each tile type. Treat as unknown; track which pairs they're completing.

04Adjusting your own discards

Reading opponents changes what you choose to throw.

1Identify which suit an opponent is building — tiles in that suit move to the bottom of your discard priority.
2Throw toward the player whose hand type you've already read — known danger is easier to navigate than unknown.
3If two opponents are building in different suits, find the tile category that's safe against both and throw there first.
4Reassess every 2–3 turns. A player who looked like mixed one-suit might pivot — watch for late-game plan changes in their river.