Take it or hold.
You're at tenpai. Someone discards your winning tile. The hand is worth 3 faan — enough to win. But one more tile could take you to 5. Do you take it or hold?
The conditions for holding require every factor to align. The conditions for taking require only one. In practice, at tenpai, at least one hold condition has usually failed.
When calculating whether to hold, be precise about what you're actually waiting for.
Count live copies. If 5-Bamboo is your upgrade and two are visible in discards, only 2 remain among roughly 20 wall tiles — about 10% per draw. Ask yourself whether that chance justifies passing a guaranteed win.
You need a sequence: draw A, then B. The probability compounds. A 10% chance becomes roughly 1% over two draws. Almost never worth holding past the midgame.
Holding for an upgrade means drawing a tile and discarding one. If that discard is dangerous to an opponent, you are risking a loss — not just a missed upgrade. Only hold if you can identify a safe discard for whatever you draw next.
Wall: 28 tiles. Tenpai waiting on 6-Dot — common hand + self-draw = 3 faan. Drawing 8-Dot instead would complete pure one-suit = 7 faan.
All five conditions pass. Hold for the upgrade. Change the wall to 15 tiles and condition one fails — take the win.
Don't romanticize the big hand. Limit hands make great stories. They also require passing many smaller wins and create opportunities to deal into opponents. Consistent play beats heroic play over time.